Investing is like sailing. Occasionally you’re cruising on a mirrored lake, but mostly it’s choppy.
Sometimes it’s a howling gale and you’re reaching for the bucket.
Volatility is in fact fundamental to markets and to investing, but what is it exactly?
Volatility refers to the magnitude and frequency of asset price moves: the greater the frequency and amplitude of price movements, the larger the volatility. Volatility is a symmetric measure in that it measures both upwards and downwards price changes. Assets that exhibit upside price volatility also have large downwards price movements. From an investment perspective this makes sense in that the higher the volatility (risk) of an asset the higher potential gains (and losses).
Throughout July and intensifying into August we saw broad levels of volatility rise across both fixed interest and equities markets, but especially in US stocks, where the abrupt selloff caused a material spike in volatility measures.
Figure 1. Equity and bond volatility
Volatility measures were driven in part by some of the largest securities. To illustrate this, we have charted the volatility of the S&P 500 US equity index against both Nvidia and Bitcoin over the past five years. While most people are well versed in the overall returns of both Nvidia and Bitcoin, most do not appreciate the level of risk/volatility associated with Nvidia’s gains. Comparing the three assets on the same chart reveals some surprising truths:
Volatility spiked in July and August, but the increase for Nvidia was largest.
Nvidia volatility is near its post-Covid highs while other assets have been more constrained.
Nvidia’s share price has persistently been more volatile than Bitcoin over the past three years!
Let that sink in for a moment.
Nvidia, the current equity market champion is more volatile than the flagship crypto currency which some believe to be a ponzi scheme.
Figure 2. Rolling 30-day volatility
Are we surprised by the recent waves of volatility? Not really. Our forecast was that after such a strong rally the market was overdue a correction. We had also signaled that current markets, and especially mega-cap US technology stocks, continue to price in optimistic expectations despite economic data signals that global growth is slowing.
Managing volatility is the key to successful investment management, recognizing when conditions are favorable to taking on risk and when they are not. In our dynamic portfolios we are patiently holding our defensive positioning until such point as we see growth asset prices reverting back to more attractive levels.
From a positioning perspective we haven’t made any asset allocation changes at this stage because we believe the opportunities are likely to improve with a little more patience. We remain underweight equity markets, especially the US; and overweight defensive fixed interest bonds; while our recent rotation into some of the unloved sectors of the markets, including emerging market stocks, and listed global real estate and infrastructure boosted our returns in July.