As the quarter drew to a close, we experienced two major events that influenced market rotation. First, as expected the US Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates, but succeeded in surprising most analysts with a 50-basis-point ‘jumbo’ cut. Second, the Chinese authorities announced a major stimulus package.
While both actions have been warmly received by investors, we continue to be concerned about the underlying causes of these policy easing measures.
The two top performing stock markets in Q3 were China’s CSI 300 and the closely linked Hang Seng in Hong Kong. In fact, both delivered outsized rallies in September, of 21.1% and 18.3% respectively. Year-to-date, the Hang Seng has now surpassed the US S&P 500 with a return of 29% vs 22.1%. The rally in Chinese stocks has also boosted broader Emerging Market returns which had a double-digit quarter of +13%.
We were positioned for this upswing across our Active models, having adding to our Emerging Market exposures in May.
Figure 1. Major equity market returns
Over the past 20-odd years Emerging Markets have only had one bigger month, meaning September was a 3-sigma event, with a probability of <0.3%.
We were less surprised. We’ve been warning for some time about the increasing probability of large volatility events, driven by underpriced risks, economic regime change and policy switches. Chinese equities were unloved, undervalued and suffering from tighter domestic economic policy when the new stimulus was introduced. As a result, investor sentiment commenced a major upswing, with Bloomberg reporting that the KraneShares CSI China ETF experienced its biggest-ever daily inflow.
We are more cautious about the cause and effect of the global slashing of interest rates.
In developed markets, consensus already expects a loosening of policy and today’s valuations are already elevated. US equities are the poster child for this sentiment. But we continue to see warning signs of a slowing US and global economy, and corporate profits that are at best moving sideways. As a result, current market optimism means investors are paying more for lower earnings. Indeed, compared to 1-year forward price-to-earnings valuations over the past quarter century, the US S&P 500 is on the 89th percentile, while the ASX200 has reached the 96th percentile.
In our view, these valuations highlight just how ‘perfectly’-priced developed equity markets are for continued growth over the next 12 months. They are a reason for continued caution.